Monday, July 29, 2013

The impact of financial crisis on current and future US economy



                                                                                                                                Name : Lawt Aung                                                                          
                                                                                                                        Student ID : W 4066692





                                                   
                                                    Webster University
                                                 Spring term / 2013
                                      FINC-5000, Finance, Section E8
                            Instructor name: Dr. Geoffrey VanderPal

        2007/08 Financial Crisis’s implication on Current and Future US economy


                                                                  










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                                                                   Abstract

          This paper explores published books that report on the causes and effects of the financial crisis that took place in 2008 and what the US Federal government and Central bank’s actions’ impact on the process of US economic recovery. The paper mainly examines the financial crisis inquiry commission’s (2011) report on causes of financial and economic crisis in the United States and Peter D. Schiff‘s (2012) book that clearly explains the current US economic situation and how the actions taken by the Federal government and Federal Reserve will likely result the potential bankruptcy of America. Moreover, this paper studies many published articles and newspapers that cover a broad range of the present economic conditions, the monetary policies that are being used by the Federal Reserve as to stimulate the economy to grow, and the possible changes of the policy regarding the sustainability of the US economy. However, the concepts of newspapers and articles vary based on the individual authors’ perception of the information and data provided by the governmental organizations. In addition, this paper also discuses about news, information, and economic related data from the website.

                                                                         
                                                                       











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                                                      Table of Contents
                                                                                                                                                            

Page

Title page …………………………………………………………………………………………..   1

Introduction………………………………………………………………… ………….. …………   2

The causes of financial crisis and lessons from it…………………………………………………..   3

The impact of financial crisis on the current US economy…………………………………………   5

The future of US economy in term of current monetary policy and economic condition………….   6

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………   8

References…………………………………………………………………………………………..   9
                                                                          







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                                                             Introduction

              Numerous studies have reported that 2008 financial crisis was the result of increasing credits availabilities in the United States provided by the budget surplus developing nations around the world. Whereas, other studies suggested that the crisis was the outcome of insufficient regulations toward the financial banking sectors. However, many economists and experts have come to agree to blame on the Federal Reserve’s nearly zero interest rate policy as the only significant factor that played a big role in causing housing bubbles and sub-prime mortgage crisis that eventually led to financial crisis. In fact, there were several other factors reported by the government agency that contributed to the causes of the crisis. For instance, the expansion of shadow banking system as the turning point of the financial crisis because all the big banks called “Too big to fail” banks that were allowed by ineffective regulations and system to make riskier investments regardless of the consequences, moreover; the financial innovations invented by the system such as, collateralized debt obligation (CDO), Mortgage backed securities (MBS), and Credit Default Swap (CDS) were the ticking bombs for the entire US economy, according to the experts.

Basically, 2008 financial crisis had caused the most severe damage to the US economy as well as the global economy after the Great depression in the 1930s. However, not many people had learned lessons from the crisis and few people are willing to contribute to the process of economic recovery. In fact, the recovery process could draw US economy into a deeper recession by the fact that Federal Reserve status of maintaining quantitative easing policy (QE) and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) that enable banks and financial institutions to borrow money with nearly zero interest rate. Consequently, big banks started by the Fed policy, giving out more loans and investing on the riskier assets for higher return as they did during the crisis.

As a result of that, the housing prices are increasing again and turning into bubbles that would eventually have to burst. When the bubble bursts, all America big banks would inevitably have to line up for default and the Federal Reserve would have to keep printing money in order to bail out all the big contagious banks. However, it is unlikely that Federal Reserve would be able to bail out all the banks, so it would probably have to allow some particular banks to fail just like it let Lehman brothers fail in 2008. As all the present big banks are becoming more interconnected again, chances are that if one fails, others will follow suit.  

Meanwhile, quantitative easing policy, which was also designed to increase inflation rate, affects the dollar price, which in turn, will make the price of commodities go up. In this case, American people are actually paying more to buy the necessity, that’s why; millions of Americans are relying on the Food Stamps and the number of people depending on Food stamps is increasing. Although the unemployment rate officially indicates only 7.6% of the population, in fact, the real rate is far more than the number used by the policymakers.

In regard to debts, America national debt has always been increasing and Federal budget deficit gap is dramatically getting bigger from year to year as borrowing increases. On the other hand, American households’ debts currently amount to trillions of dollars as people depend on the borrowing rather than earning. As a matter of fact, the situation is unlikely to get better as it doesn’t appear as a serious problem for the US economy as long as the rest of the world still wants to lend their money to America. But once the moment that the rest of the world stops flowing their money into America, this moment will be the time for US economy facing the Great depression which would possibly be much severe than the Great depression in the 1930s.

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In fact, there are ways to improve economic growth rate and protect the economy from experiencing another financial debacle. Yet it would take solid desire and intention of the Federal government (Politicians) and Federal Reserve (Policymakers) to take necessary steps that would be painful for short-term, but better for long-term. As a matter of fact, according to the economists and analysts, the politicians don’t want to clean up the mess created by their predecessors and that they have to play the same game which makes them more concerned about winning next election, so chances are that the economy would have to suffer the harsh pain in the long-run with current government policy and monetary policy. In reality, the US economy is in the midst of recovery process and financial crisis can occur at anytime if the policymakers are stubborn enough to change the ineffective policies. 
                                                                       
                                                                      
                       The Causes of Financial Crisis and lessons from it

                    The undeniable factors that caused 2008 financial crisis were the bursting of housing bubbles and the Sub-prime mortgage crisis. Apparently, the housing bubble was created by easy credit availabilities with the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy at which people could borrow with artificially low interest rate. Yet there were other factors that contributed to the causing of financial crisis. For instance, the failure of regulators to prevent big banks from taking more risk than they could afford to was one factor that backfired the crisis and the corruption business of Credit rating Agency was another.

 According to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission report (2011),

“The financial crisis of 2008 was not a single event but a series of crises that rippled through the financial system and, ultimately, the economy. Distress in one area of the financial markets led to failures in other areas by way of interconnections and vulnerabilities that bankers, government officials, and others had missed or dismissed” (P-27)

In the report, the commission interestingly found out that the financial crisis was avoidable disaster caused by widespread failures in government regulation, corporate mismanagement and heedless risk-taking by Wall Street. Eventually, the report identified the fact that there were systematic breakdowns of accountability and ethics when it comes to business in terms of profitability and bonuses. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report (2011) (P-XXI) 

 To explain the overview causes of the financial crisis, the starting point of the crisis was the result of using Federal Reserve zero interest rate policy that was designed to stimulate the economy. However, it turned out that the Fed policy did not help the economy to grow efficiently, yet it created the housing bubble due to the fact that banks got access to the excessive credit loans from the rest of the world with low interest rate. As the banks could borrow money from the Fed with nearly zero interest rate, it took more risk in order to earn higher return. As a result, banks were encouraged to give loans to people whose standard were in no income, no assets (NINA) level. On the other hand, Mortgage lenders were forced to help people to get houses that they actually could not afford to pay back. Consequently, the housing price skyrocketed as people took loans and put them into the real estate market.

                                                                          
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In fact, the politicians established the notion of high risk investments on the real estate market with their policy to increase home ownership while their administration taking office. They supported the lobbyists such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which were also known as Government sponsored Enterprises to take more risk on the securities related investments through shadow banking systems which amounted to trillions of dollars. As mortgage lenders themselves were backed by the government, they guaranteed and bought the securities which were associated with high risk. They knew that the securities they bought and guaranteed were toxic assets even for themselves, yet they took the risk in order to generate higher return for themselves regardless of the consequences as they knew, in case liquidity squeeze occurs, government’s bail out would rescue them from falling into bankruptcy.
On the other hand, with the failure of the regulatory agencies such as Security Exchange Commission (SEC), to prevent banks and financial institutions from taking high risk, Wall Street bankers, financial institutions, and Government sponsored Enterprises were able to create financial innovation that expanded shadow banking system. As shadow banking system where derivatives and repos were traded became bigger, banks and financial institutions relied heavily on the system for their firms’ liquidity and short-term capital source, which in turn, made them less worried about their large exposure to securities investment.
In the case of Credit rating Agency’s corruption business, FCIC’s report concludes the failures of credit rating agencies were essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction. The three credit rating agencies were key enablers of the financial meltdown. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report(2011) (P-xxv) Basically, they made it possible for security issuers to sell their risky mortgage backed securities (MBS), collateral debt obligation (CDO),and Credit default swap (CDS) by rating with flawed models which gave all the securities triple A. As a result, investors and financial institutions trusted the agencies and invested huge amount of money which later resulted loses and drove some of investment banks such as Bear Stearns to be taken over and Lehman brothers into bankruptcy; moreover, American International Group (AIG), which insured securities worth trillions of dollars that exceeded the total assets of the firm, was able to survive with the help of government’s bail out.
In fact, due to the credit rating agencies’ triple A rate on the mortgage-related securities, investment banks and financial institutions doubled their exposure to security investments by borrowing money from over- the counter derivatives market. As a result, almost all the security issuers’ leverage ratios increased to 30: 1 on average that resulted many banks found liquidity shortage which was one of the reasons that led banks to fail and financial crisis to take place in 2008. 
 Regarding the lessons to learn from the crisis, government and policy makers should have changed the monetary policies that did not actually contribute to the recovery process after the financial crisis. In fact, it should not be forgotten that Federal Reserve zero interest rate policy, which is still being used, created bubbles and its cheap money allowed bankers to make risky investments that eventually led to the crisis. Therefore, Fed Reserve and policy makers should get rid of the zero interest rate policy as soon as possible to make sure Wall Street bankers and financial institution do not return to the situation of the post-financial crisis with the Fed money printing policy.
                                                                       
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The FCIC concludes the combination of excessive borrowing, risky investments in the mortgage-related securities, and lack of transparency put the entire financial system on a collision course with crisis. Financial Crisis Inquiry Report (2011) (P-xix). Thus, it is important to regulate banks from excessive borrowing and make banks more transparent as to prevent the recession. Nevertheless, Security and Exchange commission should impose laws and regulations that maintain accountability and ethics in order to protect the market.
In particular, the credit rating agencies, according to the report of FCIC, the financial crisis could not have happened without the rating agencies. Their ratings helped the market soar and their downgrades through 2007 and 2008 wreaked havoc across the markets and firms. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report (2011) (P-xxv) Therefore, it is essential that the rating agencies use unbiased rating models when it comes to rate the financial stability of the firms. As investors rely on them blindly, they should consider they are obligated to provide the accurate information in term of rating firms. By then, the contribution of the regulatory agencies and policy makers will have a positive impact on the current as well as the future of the US economy.
                                                                                 
                  
                  The impact of the financial crisis on the current US economy

              In order to cover the big picture of the current US economy, it is reasonable to start from the national debt which has ever been increasing and now the total debt is over $16 trillion dollar. (US national debt clock (2013), Retrieved from http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/) Since the dot-com bubbles and September 11 terrorist attack took place in the United States, the US economy has suffered the slow down and in 2008, the US economy has experienced the greatest financial crisis in the history, which resulted bankruptcy of large investment banks, millions of Americans unemployed and transform the country into the greatest debtor nation in the world. Since then, the government and Federal Reserve have been trying to boost the economic growth to get out of the recession. Yet the US economy has not experienced the real recovery until now.
 During the financial crisis, the housing price has plummeted due to the sub-prime mortgage crisis in which millions of home owners defaulted on their mortgage loans. Soon after the crisis, the housing prices have been literally increasing as the interest rate remained low. However, some economists believed that the increase in housing price shows that investors are confident about investing in the real estate market again. In reality, the Fed’s quantitative easing policy is encouraging people to spend money and buy houses that make the housing price consistently grow as increase in demand drives the price higher.
As Fed kept printing money to stimulate the economy started in the late of November 2008 shortly after the financial crisis as to increase the inflation, there was no incentive for American people to

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save money ever since. Thus, people started to spend borrowing money that they don’t actually earn which increased the household debt amount to trillion in the current US economy. As a matter of fact, when people do the savings, the inflation and government tax eventually wipe out their savings. Therefore; fewer people do the savings and economists and experts condemn the current Federal Reserve monetary policy that creates cheap money and discourage people to save for their investments. 
The following year after the financial crisis took place, the effect of the crisis has spurred unemployment rate increase from 9.3% in 2009 and 9.6% in 2010. However, in 2011 and 2012, national unemployment rate has dropped to 8.1% and in 2013; it came down to 7.6%.

Figure below indicates the unemployment rate;
http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS14000000_2003_2013_all_period_M06_data.gif                                                              Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
(Bureau of Labor statistics (2013), US unemployment rate, Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/cps/)
 On the other hand, higher inflation rate has become one of the policymakers’ goals before and after the crisis as it played a major role in the history of US economy. Before the financial crisis, the inflation rate has surged to almost 6%, then, shortly after the crisis, the inflation rate has sharply plummeted to the deflationary level. Since then, the US Federal Reserve started to use the quantitative easing (QE) policy to increase inflation rate. In 2010, the inflation rate increased to around 2% by the Fed’s quantitative easing policy (also known as monthly bond purchasing program) which was kept using until June 2010 when the economy was believed to start improve, however, the program resumed in August 2010 with Fed’s decision to make the economy grow robustly.(Harding. Robin. (2010), Quantitative Easing Explained. Financial Times, Retrieved from http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/69e8c92c-e758-11df-880d-00144feab49a.html#axzz2YqxQWO3B)

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Regarding the economic development in term of GDP growth, before the financial crisis, the US economy maintained the annual GDP growth of 2%, however, during the financial crisis, especially in 2008, the GDP growth went the opposite side of the growth chart with a significant negative growth rate, yet after the following fiscal years of the financial crisis, the GDP gained annual growth rate between 1% and 3 %.
According to the Federal Reserve Monetary Report (2013),
“Real GDP is estimated to have increased at an annual rate of 3 percent in the third quarter but to have been essentially flat in the fourth, as economic activity was temporarily restrained by weather-related disruptions and declines in some erratic categories of spending, including inventory investment and federal defense spending”.  (P-5)
In fact, the impact of financial crisis has been enormously dominating the growth of current US economy and financial development in various sectors. Despite the policy makers’ efforts to reduce the unemployment rate and increase the inflation rate, the target rates still remain far from reach. However, the Federal Reserve keeps trying to achieve its goal with its quantitative easing policy and zero interest rate policy. Therefore; these policies are likely to stay in the US economy longer than expected, which in turn, encourage people to borrow more money and spend the money that they otherwise could not earn and that can bring consumer debt much more than current debt of 2.8 trillion. (Consumer Credit Outstanding (2013), http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/)


The Future of US economy in term of current monetary policy and economic condition

             The notion of real recovery taking over the US economy is not fully completed yet as there are news and articles that keep accusing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy of trapping the country into a deeper recession. However, the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke keeps saying the economy is recovering with the Fed’s policy and the country’s GDP is growing as the real recovery taking place. Despite the claims made by the Obama administration and the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke about the recovery, the GDP annual growth is 1.7% and unemployment rate is unlikely to fall from 7.6 %. Nevertheless, Obama administration’s budget cutting policy established in the first quarter of 2013 has caused the unemployment rate increase to a certain extent, yet it is somewhat contributing to the US economy by planning to reduce the deficit.


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Figures below show the United States GDP growth rate and unemployment rate.

United States Unemployment Rate

United States Unemployment Rate (2013), Graph illustrates the unemployment rate from (Jan/2012) to (July/2013), Retrieved from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment rate
                                                
                                                                                        
1_photo.jpg
    United States annual GDP growth rate (2013), Graph illustrates the annual GDP growth rate from (2008-2012) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp
                                                                                    
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In particular, the increase in US national debt and household debt is indicating whether or not the economy is recovering. As over 16 trillion national debts exceed the country’s GDP and the consumer debt is approximately 17% of the GDP, it is obvious that the US economy is not fully recovered yet. However, the economy is recovering on its own, and the unemployment rate is falling on a quarterly basis. On the other hand, the inflation is approaching to its appropriate rate. Yet, the problem is, ineffective monetary policy is still unchanged. Although, certain monetary policy and government policy have helped the economy to recover from the recession period by increasing inflation rate, it is a good time to replace the policy with a better one. In fact, there are ongoing problems caused by the Fed monetary policy and government policy in the US economy. For instance, the zero interest rate policy is still making the savings unattractive for American people and encouraging people to borrow money that they cannot pay back. Regarding the government policy toward savings,
Peter D. Schiff (2012) described it as follow;
 “Government rewards borrowing (the biggest tax deduction for most families is the deduction for mortgage interest) but often punishes saving (by taxing investment gains and interest on CDs and savings accounts)”. (P-12)
It is true that government policy was designed to punish the savings and this policy is exactly what the government has been using since Bush administration and now it is being used by Obama administration. And now, Government keeps urging people to go out and spend their borrowing money. And people who save money are recognized as unpatriotic and government takes almost all the capital gain earned from savings.
Regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, the Fed monthly bond purchasing program so called Quantitative Easing (QE) policy, along with zero interest rate policy is creating bubbles in the stock market as many people invest in the market with the cheap money they borrow from the government. In fact, if the quantitative easing policy is used to reduce the deficit, it’s a beneficial for the economy, but unfortunately; it is being used to create troubles for the economy by eliminating the interest rate and increasing debt. Besides, due to the availability of cheap money made by the Fed policy, housing prices are rising up again and derivative markets are also expanding and used commonly for capital and liquidity source for firms again. However, this doesn’t seem like a problem for now, but once the housing price drop and interest rate rises, it is unlikely that markets will remain calm, and many people tend to end up experiencing massive loses just like in 2008 and find themselves in a debt hole.
 On the other hand, for bond markets with zero interest rate policy, by the time interest rate rises, many investors, including financial institutions will encounter huge loses, however, as they got their investments insured by the insurance companies, they are safe. So the biggest losers will be the insurance companies which are backed by the government. When this happens, the situation will be pretty much the same with the situation of pre-crisis era.

                                        
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In term of rules and regulations, banks and financial institutions are being imposed with some new rules and regulation regarding their investment exposure on the securities, but they are still allowed to trade in the derivative markets and guarantee the securities investments. Yet, the unprecedented thing is that Federal Reserve is buying securities from the investment banks and other financial institutions. Therefore, former troublemaker banks are getting their position back and starting to do the same businesses that led to the financial crisis in 2008. For instance, Giant mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have gained their positions to issue and guarantee mortgage-related securities that mainly caused the recent financial crisis.
On the other hand, large banks are also trying to take the position of “Too big to fail” status rather than maintaining their solvency, so that they can be assured that government would provide them with a bailout package if something happens to them. As the US government itself is insolvent, it is unlikely that government would be able to bail out all the banks if they default. Big banks rely on the government, whereas, government is the greatest debtor in the world. Interestingly, experts made the statement related to the subject, “If the banks default, the government could probably bail them out, but if the government defaults, who’s going to bailout the government?” In fact, allowing large banks make risky investments by giving them hope that they will be rescued by the government could lead the economy into a deeper recession in the future.  
As the global economy is unstable and fragile, and many countries are still in the recession, especially the European countries that used to be the creditor nations of the United States, the policymakers of the largest economy should be careful about the condition of their own economy. On the other hand, China, the second largest economy in the world and the largest creditor nation of the US is in the midst of credit crunch and experiencing the economic slowdown in 2013. So the problem is, if these creditor nations come and ask for their money from the government through bonds (IOUs), the US government will have to print money to payout the debts because it is the only way government can do to payout the debts. The more they print money, the higher inflation there will be and the value of the dollars will drop. Once the value of the dollar drops significantly, the dollar will lose the Global Reserve Currency status. As a result, the world will get rid of the dollar, the commodity price will shoot up and the US economy will collapse again with the devaluation of the dollar price. However, as many countries’ central banks are also printing money in unison, this scenario might sound, but it is important to note that this can happen unexpectedly. 
   In reality, the future of US economy is not as bright as it is said by the policymakers. In fact, the situation could be getting worse if the necessary steps are not taken by the government and policymakers. The present US economy seems stable in the short-term with annual GDP growth rate 1.7%, yet it is unlikely sustainable for the long-run with the current government policy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. However, Obama administration’s budget cutting policy is contributing to the deficit reduction. Yet, government and policymakers should change the strategy and policy to boost the economic growth for the long-run.



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 In particular, government and policymakers should taper the quantitative easing policy before it is too late, let the market determine the interest rate, and encourage people to save and borrow for productivity. On the other hand, it is also important to regulate the shadow banking system as it was the main cause of the recent financial crisis. Once all the rules and regulations are fixed and American people will become productive like they used to, and the tendency is that the future of US economy will experience substantial growth that will result the improvement in the standard of living. In the future, the nation will probably become prosperous with the productivity of its citizens.


                                                              










                                                            


                                                             
                                                       


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                                                     Summary
   
          The implications of the financial crisis still influence the current and future US economy as similar situations overwhelm the entire economy. Although, many people learned great lessons from the crisis, majority of people fail to apply what they learned into the present condition of the US economy and unwilling to contribute to the recovery process. On the other hand, Short-term oriented policymakers refuse to take the short-term pain for the sake of future, that’s why; they do not take the future into consideration. In fact, one of the main causes of financial crisis, lack of corporate social responsibility, accountability, and ethics among financial institutions and regulatory agencies, is threatening the economy with a severe recession again. As regulatory agencies are still in the same shape with the same rules and regulations toward the securities investments, it is likely to support the potential crisis in the future. Nevertheless, along with the regulators, troublemakers (lobbyist bankers) are being favored by the politicians to take advantage of the volatile markets. Whereas, the economy is not fully recovered yet and the existence and once-again-expansion of shadow banking system can create problems at anytime for the economy. In the shadow banking system, unregulated derivatives market is becoming the major capital source for the firms again and it’s getting larger and it puts trillions of dollars that probably exceed country’s GDP at risk. Regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy, if the Fed is going to keep using quantitative easing (QE) and zero interest rate policy, the commodities price will become higher in term of dollar. As a consequent, US household debt rate would dramatically increase because of the increase in commodities and necessities prices. However, as mentioned above, central banks around the world are printing money at the same time, it is unlikely that US economy will experience hyperinflation. But, there is another problem with the policy that US economy will still have issues with capital flowing out to foreign countries that can result capital shortage among institutions in the near future. As a good example of the issue, before the financial crisis, capital shortage and liquidity issues were the reasons that caused Bear Stearns to be taken over and Lehman brothers to file on Bankruptcy. In term of government policy, it is the appropriate time that Obama administration introduced the budget cutting policy in government spending in the first quarter of 2013. However, as it is affecting the employment rate, the policy should be carefully examined about whether or not it is helping the recovery process. Moreover, government policies are supposed to be more concerned about reducing national debt and balancing trade deficit as these issues could become major problems for the economic growth. In particular, government policy should stop encouraging people to borrow by imposing no incentives for the borrowers. At the same time, create incentives for savers as they contribute to the economy by reducing their debts. In regard to regulatory firms, government should impose laws to protect agencies from doing criminal business activities. Nevertheless, regulating banks and financial institutions from enlarging their exposure to securities investment is also important as a protection of the recession. On the other hand, it is the right time for Federal Reserve to taper its ineffective quantitative easing policy and zero interest rate policy for economic recovery process. Instead of maintaining these ineffective policies and borrow money from the rest of the world, the Fed should seek for strategic plan to boost the economic growth. As a result of that, US economy will be fully recovered and will likely experience the greatest prosperity in the future.
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                                                      References

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, (2011), Final Report of the national commission on
             the causes of financial and economic crisis in the United States, xxi-xxviii, 27-48.
Federal Reserve Monetary Report, (2013), Recent Economic and Financial                            
             development, monetary policy, 5-15
Peter D. Schiff, The Real Crash, (2012), America’s coming bankruptcy-how to save
             yourself and your country, 12-30
Harding. Robin, (2010), Quantitative Easing Explained, Financial times, Retrieved from  
US National Debt Clock (2013), National Debt over 16 trillion and it has continued to increase an
         average of $ 2.42 billion per day since September 30, 2012, Retrieved from
Bureau of Labor Statistics (2013), US unemployment rate, Retrieved from
         http://www.bls.gov/cps/
Consumer Credit rate (2013), Consumer Credit Outstanding, Retrieved from
United States GDP (2013), US Annual GDP growth rate from (2008) to (2012),
         Retrieved from  
United States Unemployment Rate (2013), US Unemployment Rate from (Jan/2012) to (July, 2013)
        Retrieved from
        http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

 


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